Speaker: Philipp Lergetporer (TUM Munich)

Title: When the Headline Hits Home: Perceived Risk of Military Conflict and Preferences for Defense Policy (with Sebastian Blesse, Clara-Marie Pache and Helen Zeidler)

When: Monday, 17 November 2025, 11:30 am – 13:00 pm

Where: Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz, lecture hall 7 (1st floor) (map)

Abstract:

Global news is more frequently influenced by imminent and existing military conflicts. The perceived threat of these conflicts is likely a significant factor in shaping real-world public policies, which may account for the rise in military armament worldwide. We conduct a representative survey experiment in Germany to examine how providing information about expert-evaluated risks of a direct military conflict with Russia affects public perceptions and policy preferences. Experts evaluate the likelihood of a NATO–Russia conflict and a Germany–Russia conflict to be 48% and 28% over the next decade, respectively, but the general public tends to overestimate these probabilities on average. Providing the public with information about experts’ assessments raises concerns about potential conflict involvement, and increases support for defense policies, including higher defense spending, mandatory military service, military growth, and assistance to Ukraine. The treatment effects persist in a follow-up survey, suggesting persistent belief updating and shifts in defense-related preferences via perceived conflict risk.